Abstract
Changes in mean sea level (MSL) are among the most discussed consequences of climate change. Recent studies have pointed to a sea level rise of more than 2.0 m in the 21st century (Bamber et al., 2019) but for coastal protection it is rather the extremes (such as storm surges) than the MSL which are particularly relevant. Specifically, if the MSL rises, the base level of storm surges also increases, i.e. storm surges will be both higher and more frequent in future. However, it is still unclear how much MSL will change by 2100 and current estimates largely depend on the scenario under consideration. The range of projections is mainly the result of so-called representative concentration pathways (RCPs), i.e. different storylines of developments in greenhouse gas concentration and radiative forcing. Depending on these scenarios, different responses in the underlying sea level components can be described on a global and regional level. For example, the analyses for the southwestern Baltic Sea show that the development of the West Antarctic ice sheet could lead to a sharp rise in the regional MSL - and thus local storm surges. The presentation aims at discussing the contributions of the individual sea level components (i.e. glaciers, postglacial land movements, groundwater, Antarctic, Greenland, ocean) and their influence on storm surges. Furthermore, global impact analyses will be used to estimate the socio-economic consequences of the individual contributions for the German North Sea and Baltic Sea coasts in 2100.
If you want to join this seminar please send an e-mail to:
baltic.transcoast(at)uni-rostock.de
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